Starter risk-market source metadata7/4/2026, 4:12:22 PM
Evidence excerpt is locked in Pro.
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polymarket43 medium
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Price 31%Volume 2MLiquidity 310KClose 8/23/2026, 4:07:09 PMScored 2026-07-04T16:12:22.018ZDriver contract ambiguity
Market detail preview
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Resolution Risk
high
Estimated band 60-80
fixture checked / not historically calibrated
60-80band
Needs manual review before treating this score as reliable. Band widened for incomplete or ambiguous information.
Deterministic resolution-risk scoring across rules clarity, source authority, deadline boundaries, outcome determinability, evidence conflict, and related-market mismatch.
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Resolution risk score
43
Heuristic point estimate; use the band.
Estimated band
60-80
Wider deterministic band because source, outcome, platform, parser, or evidence uncertainty remains. Fixture-checked, not historically calibrated.
Epistemic confidence
low
Platform resolution authority or finality is unknown. / Source chain confidence is weak or source precedence is unclear.
Review priority
50
Data confidence
Confidence n/a
Evidence completeness
0
complete
Outcome policy
binary
Outcome risk 0/100
Platform resolution
unknown
Finality unknown / Dispute unknown / Platform risk 100/100
Source chain
unknown
Revision unknown / Latency unknown / Policy multiple sources no hierarchy / Source risk 78/100
Parsed rule
unknown
Title unknown
Assessment state
needs manual review
contract ambiguity
Risk Breakdown
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Source quality: embedded source in rules
Source: Unlock in Pro
No rule or clarification change has been detected.
Updated not detected
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