Starter risk-market source metadata7/4/2026, 4:11:30 PM
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polymarket47 medium
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Price 22%Volume 680KLiquidity 95KClose 2/24/2027, 4:07:09 PMScored 2026-07-04T16:11:30.188ZDriver contract ambiguity
Market detail preview
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Resolution Risk
medium
Estimated band 30-64
fixture checked / not historically calibrated
30-64band
Needs manual review before treating this score as reliable. Band widened for incomplete or ambiguous information.
Deterministic resolution-risk scoring across rules clarity, source authority, deadline boundaries, outcome determinability, evidence conflict, and related-market mismatch.
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Resolution risk score
47
Heuristic point estimate; use the band.
Estimated band
30-64
Wider deterministic band because source, outcome, platform, parser, or evidence uncertainty remains. Fixture-checked, not historically calibrated.
Epistemic confidence
low
Platform resolution authority or finality is unknown. / Source chain confidence is weak or source precedence is unclear.
Review priority
48
Data confidence
Confidence n/a
Evidence completeness
0
complete
Outcome policy
binary
Outcome risk 0/100
Platform resolution
unknown
Finality unknown / Dispute unknown / Platform risk 90/100
Source chain
unknown
Revision unknown / Latency medium / Policy multiple sources no hierarchy / Source risk 58/100
Parsed rule
unknown
Title unknown
Assessment state
needs manual review
contract ambiguity
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No rule or clarification change has been detected.
Updated not detected
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