Starter risk-market source metadata7/4/2026, 4:08:22 PM
Evidence excerpt is locked in Pro.
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polymarket48 high
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
Price 34%Volume 720KLiquidity 110KClose 9/24/2026, 4:07:09 PMScored 2026-07-04T16:08:22.972ZDriver mixed
Market detail preview
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Resolution Risk
medium
Estimated band 31-65
fixture checked / not historically calibrated
31-65band
Needs manual review before treating this score as reliable. Band widened for incomplete or ambiguous information.
Deterministic resolution-risk scoring across rules clarity, source authority, deadline boundaries, outcome determinability, evidence conflict, and related-market mismatch.
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Resolution risk score
48
Heuristic point estimate; use the band.
Estimated band
31-65
Wider deterministic band because source, outcome, platform, parser, or evidence uncertainty remains. Fixture-checked, not historically calibrated.
Epistemic confidence
low
Resolution source data is missing. / Platform resolution authority or finality is unknown.
Review priority
68
Data confidence
Confidence n/a
Evidence completeness
0
missing source
Outcome policy
binary
Outcome risk 0/100
Platform resolution
unknown
Finality unknown / Dispute unknown / Platform risk 100/100
Source chain
unknown
Revision unknown / Latency unknown / Policy explicit primary source / Source risk 46/100
Parsed rule
unknown
Title unknown
Assessment state
needs manual review
mixed
Risk Breakdown
Dimension-level risk scoring, confidence inputs, and source-chain factors unlock in Pro.
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Full reasons, ambiguous terms, and evidence references unlock in Pro.
Start ProRules & Clarifications
Source quality: missing source
Source: Unlock in Pro
No rule or clarification change has been detected.
Updated not detected
Rules text, settlement source, field diff, original/latest snapshots, and canonical JSON unlock in Pro.
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