Snapshot risk-market source metadata7/4/2026, 1:56:14 PM
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polymarket36 medium
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Price 1%Volume 53.1MLiquidity 2.4MClose 11/7/2028, 12:00:00 AMScored 7/4/2026, 1:56:14 PMDriver contract ambiguity
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Resolution Risk
high
Estimated band 60-80
fixture checked / not historically calibrated
60-80band
Needs manual review before treating this score as reliable. Band widened for incomplete or ambiguous information.
Deterministic resolution-risk scoring across rules clarity, source authority, deadline boundaries, outcome determinability, evidence conflict, and related-market mismatch.
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Resolution risk score
36
Heuristic point estimate; use the band.
Estimated band
60-80
Wider deterministic band because source, outcome, platform, parser, or evidence uncertainty remains. Fixture-checked, not historically calibrated.
Epistemic confidence
low
Source chain confidence is weak or source precedence is unclear.
Review priority
45
Data confidence
Confidence n/a
Evidence completeness
0
complete
Outcome policy
binary
Outcome risk 44/100
Platform resolution
official source
Finality partially known / Dispute none known / Platform risk 0/100
Source chain
unknown
Revision medium / Latency low / Policy multiple sources no hierarchy / Source risk 92/100
Parsed rule
event time
Title event time
Assessment state
needs manual review
contract ambiguity
Risk Breakdown
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Start ProRules & Clarifications
Source quality: embedded source in rules
Source: Unlock in Pro
low rule risk
No rule or clarification change has been detected.
Updated 7/4/2026, 3:59:38 AM
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