Snapshot risk-market source metadata7/4/2026, 1:56:14 PM
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polymarket42 medium
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Price 11%Volume 15.5MLiquidity 2.2MClose 12/31/2026, 6:30:00 PMScored 7/4/2026, 1:56:14 PMDriver contract ambiguity
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Resolution Risk
high
Estimated band 60-80
fixture checked / not historically calibrated
60-80band
Needs manual review before treating this score as reliable. Band widened for incomplete or ambiguous information.
Deterministic resolution-risk scoring across rules clarity, source authority, deadline boundaries, outcome determinability, evidence conflict, and related-market mismatch.
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Resolution risk score
42
Heuristic point estimate; use the band.
Estimated band
60-80
Wider deterministic band because source, outcome, platform, parser, or evidence uncertainty remains. Fixture-checked, not historically calibrated.
Epistemic confidence
low
Source chain confidence is weak or source precedence is unclear. / Parsed rule text still contains temporal or subjective ambiguity.
Review priority
50
Data confidence
Confidence n/a
Evidence completeness
0
complete
Outcome policy
binary
Outcome risk 0/100
Platform resolution
official source
Finality partially known / Dispute none known / Platform risk 0/100
Source chain
unknown
Revision unknown / Latency medium / Policy multiple sources no hierarchy / Source risk 88/100
Parsed rule
announcement time
Title unknown
Assessment state
needs manual review
contract ambiguity
Risk Breakdown
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Source quality: embedded source in rules
Source: Unlock in Pro
low rule risk
No rule or clarification change has been detected.
Updated 6/26/2026, 4:38:23 AM
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