Vigilentis
Pro
polymarket19 medium

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?

Price 2%Volume 487KLiquidity 28.7KClose 12/9/2026, 12:00:00 AMScored 7/4/2026, 3:20:46 PMDriver contract ambiguity
External market
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? market image

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Resolution Risk

medium

Estimated band 30-50

fixture checked / not historically calibrated

30-50band
Needs manual review before treating this score as reliable. Band widened for incomplete or ambiguous information.

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Resolution risk score

19

Heuristic point estimate; use the band.

Estimated band

30-50

Wider deterministic band because source, outcome, platform, parser, or evidence uncertainty remains. Fixture-checked, not historically calibrated.

Epistemic confidence

low

Source chain confidence is weak or source precedence is unclear.

Review priority

26

Data confidence

Confidence n/a

Evidence completeness

0

complete

Outcome policy

binary

Outcome risk 0/100

Platform resolution

official source

Finality partially known / Dispute none known / Platform risk 0/100

Source chain

unknown

Revision low / Latency low / Policy multiple sources no hierarchy / Source risk 48/100

Parsed rule

unknown

Title unknown

Assessment state

needs manual review

contract ambiguity

Risk Breakdown

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Exact Reasons

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Rules & Clarifications

Source quality: embedded source in rules

Source: Unlock in Pro

low rule risk

No rule or clarification change has been detected.

Updated 6/10/2026, 4:07:20 PM

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Evidence Items

Snapshot risk-market source metadata7/4/2026, 3:20:46 PM

Evidence excerpt is locked in Pro.

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