Snapshot risk-market source metadata7/4/2026, 3:20:46 PM
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kalshi37 medium
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Price 94%Volume -Liquidity -Close 12/9/2026, 6:55:00 PMScored 7/4/2026, 3:20:46 PMDriver mixed
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Resolution Risk
medium
Estimated band 30-54
fixture checked / not historically calibrated
30-54band
Needs manual review before treating this score as reliable. Band widened for incomplete or ambiguous information.
Deterministic resolution-risk scoring across rules clarity, source authority, deadline boundaries, outcome determinability, evidence conflict, and related-market mismatch.
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Resolution risk score
37
Heuristic point estimate; use the band.
Estimated band
30-54
Wider deterministic band because source, outcome, platform, parser, or evidence uncertainty remains. Fixture-checked, not historically calibrated.
Epistemic confidence
low
Resolution source data is missing. / Platform resolution authority or finality is unknown.
Review priority
54
Data confidence
Confidence n/a
Evidence completeness
0
missing source
Outcome policy
binary
Outcome risk 0/100
Platform resolution
unknown
Finality unknown / Dispute unknown / Platform risk 100/100
Source chain
unknown
Revision unknown / Latency medium / Policy explicit primary source / Source risk 28/100
Parsed rule
publication time
Title unknown
Assessment state
needs manual review
mixed
Risk Breakdown
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Source quality: missing source
Source: Unlock in Pro
low rule risk
No rule or clarification change has been detected.
Updated 6/10/2026, 4:07:20 PM
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